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Phone: +38 044 525-86-30
DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS
According to the Ukrainian SSR Council of Ministers’ resolution concerning the development of studies on clouds and fogs modification, 1958, the Department of Atmospheric Physics was formed in UHMI. It was headed by G.I. Pereliot. In 1967 it was renamed into the Department of Weather Modification (the Head – A.V. Tkachenko, then – Ye.Ye. Korniyenko) with laboratories of cloud physics (the Head – A.V. Tkachenko), theoretical researches (the Head – M.V. Buykov), weather modification (the Head – I.P. Polovyna), radar researches (the Head – V. M. Muchnyk) and aerosol researches (the Head – V. P. Bakhanov). When Ukraine gained the independence the Head of the Department for a short time was V. S. Khusid then in different years the Department was led by V. P. Bakhanov and V. A. Prusov, since 2011 the Department has been headed by Shpyg Vitalii. MAIN DIRECTIONS OF RESEARCH WORK The modeling and analysis of physical characteristics, processes and phenomena of a natural and technogenic origin in the atmosphere.Mesoscale diffusion processes in the atmosphere and the formation of an atmospheric air pollution by powerful industrial objects.The numerical weather forecast and interdisciplinary research aimed at solving the applied problems in the field of hydrology, marine hydrometeorology, ecology, etc. (in conjunction with other scientific units of UHMI).The meso- and microstructure of cloud systems and precipitation associated with them.The weather modification.The homogenization of meteorological observations.The climate change and its impact on the cloud cover.PERSONNEL OF THE DEPARTMENTThe main value of the department is its specialists, combining the experience of older generations and the energy of young researchers. Today there are 21 permanent employees including 2 doctors of physical and mathematical sciences (Prusov V.A., Voloshchuk V.M.) and 6 Ph.D. (candidate of geographical sciences Shpyg V.M., candidate of physical and mathematical sciences Bakhanov V.P., candidate of geographical sciences Leskov B.N., candidate of geographical sciences Zabolotska T.M., candidate of physical and mathematical sciences Skrynyk O.Ya., candidate of geographic sciences Palamarchuk L.V.). HISTORY OF FORMATION & DEVELOPMENT1958-1990
The formation and development of the Department of Atmospheric Physics of UHMI for many decades in the XX century were closely associated with the development of works on the weather modification that were conducted with the aim of finding the ways to improve the water availability of the agricultural production in the steppe region of Ukraine. The region's areas played an important role in the production of grain and other crops in the former Soviet Union and continue to be among the key in the independent Ukraine despite the fact that they belong to a zone with a low humidity that often suffers from droughts. It was necessary to explore the possibility of increasing an atmospheric precipitation by acting on clouds, to develop the operational methods of such influences and methods of their control. For this purpose, the department of an atmospheric physics which was subsequently transformed into the department of a cloud physics and weather modification was created. At the same time the problem laboratories in the Kyiv and Odessa universities, the Odessa Hydrometeorological Institute, the Institute of General and Inorganic Chemistry of the USSR Academy of Sciences were created for the work in this area. The main directions of the department research were studying the roles of various factors in the cloud evolution and also meteorological and physical conditions of a fog formation and dissipation. In the studies of that time experimental works occupied a significant place.
The initiator of the weather modification works in Ukraine was the first director of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute G.F. Prykhotko. Since 1959 the field works of the weather modification have been conducted at the Experimental Meteorological Proving Ground (EMPG) that was located in the Dnipropetrovsk region and was the largest in the world and had one of the most advanced equipment at that time. At the same time in the city of Dnipropetrovsk (now – Dnipro) the Department of Experimental Studies which had an aeronautical group equipped with IL-14 airplanes was set up. In May 1959 the flights were started. Initially the experimental works on the modification of precipitation were conducted in three areas corresponding to the major classes of clouds (an air-mass stratus, frontal brumal, convective). The department of an atmospheric physics was subsequently transformed into the department of a cloud physics and weather modification. A solid carbon dioxide which was dropped off the plane was used and then also silver iodide was applied. The works of the first years gave encouraging results. One of the research directions was a regulation of a winter precipitation by a cloud seeding of a solid carbon dioxide ("dry ice") from the airplane. Based on the field experiments of seeding the air-mass stratus clouds (G.I. Pereliot, I.P. Polovyna) it was found that from this class of clouds 5-10 % of the winter precipitation amount mainly as snow can be obtained additionally. Seeding winter frontal clouds (M.P. Leonov) can lead to an increase in the amount of the precipitation that falls out from them, about 20-30 %. In the eighties this result was refined and found the confirmation in the experiments with a regular seeding of the frontal clouds over a preset area (B.N. Leskov). The criteria of clouds’ suitability for the influence were established. For three years (1974-1976) in January the seeding of all the clouds that are suitable for the modification was held and were observed on the pre-selected area proving ground with a radius of 10 km. The monthly precipitation amount was increased about 30-50 %. The increasing of precipitation was observed in the area adjoining to the selected area with 2000-4000 km2. The experiment of a regular seeding of the clouds over the selected area throughout all the cold season was planned. The influence on clouds during the winter season could have a significant impact on the crop capacity in the area where the seeding was carried out. The scheme for assessing the economic efficiency of the modification of precipitation (M.V. Buykov) was developed. Based on the statistical model "Weather – Harvest" in which the precipitation was included as an independent variable the possible increasing of the crop yields and income from the cultivation of major crops in the Sophiivka district of Dnipropetrovsk region was calculated. Also, the great amount of the research of a summer precipitation artificial regulation was carried out. On the first phase of the works the powerful Cumulus clouds were the object of influences (G.F. Prykhotko). During their seeding by a solid carbon dioxide a significant increase in precipitation falling out from the clouds was observed (G.F. Prykhotko, Ye.Ye. Korniyenko). At this time the experiments of the modification of the Cumulonimbus clouds were conducted (Ye.Ye. Korniyenko). The results obtained at that time indicate an increase in precipitation during seeding them by a silver iodide from the airplane however all the varieties of the Cumulonimbus clouds are still not studied in order to be able to formulate the final results. Since 1973 the UHMI’s scientists have taken part in the project to increase the precipitation in the basin of Lake Sevan where the water problem has become particularly acute. The task of the Institute was to test the efficiency of the aircraft methods of the modification in this area. After the application of these methods in UHMI the considerable experience was accumulated. As a result of the conducted flights that were executed in 1974-1976 the frequency of the summer clouds that are suitable for the modification to increase precipitation was estimated; the specific forms of winter clouds were researched. In the basin of the lake the experimental proving ground for a regular modification from the high-altitude aircraft Yak-40 using the squib of a silver iodide and airplane-lab IL-14 using a solid carbon dioxide in winter was created. Along with the works on increasing the precipitation the developing of an aircraft method of scattering supercooled clouds and fogs using a solid carbon dioxide was started (G.I. Pereliot, I.P. Polovyna). As a result of the years of the research the operational scheme of clouds and fogs scattering was developed including advice on choosing the site of the injection of a reagent depending on the wind in the cloud layer, reactant consumption, density of lines of seeding. The scheme ensured a complete dispersion of the cloud (fog) at temperatures below -3 °C and the vertical power to 600 meters and a partial dispersion in a wide range of values of the cloud (fog) parameters. The method is used to disclose the aerodromes from supercooled fogs. Even its occasional using provided the annual admission and release of 50-100 aircrafts in a number of the airports in Ukraine. In the 1960s the method of preventing fogs by coating the surface water with a monomolecular layer with active substances was proposed (G.F. Prykhotko, L.M. Royiv, M.V. Tovbyn). The full-scale experiments in the Kola Bay showed the possibility of preventing the fogs in an area of several square kilometers. Further the method of preparation of the reagent for the modification (R.A. Bakhanova) was improved. The scientific basis for the development of weather modification methods was the results of the great experimental studies of clouds’ and fogs’ structure and the processes that occur there. With the help of the airborne, radar, aerostatic and other means of the research applied to the EMPG the extensive experimental material about the physical properties of the clouds, precipitation and fogs was gained. The unique materials about the structure of precipitation fields were obtained on the precipitation network of the proving ground. With their help, in particular, the evaluation of precipitation layer measurement accuracy depending on the area and density of the network was carried out. It also happened due to the regular flights along with the production experiments, continued accumulation of the new experimental data about the dynamics and microstructure of the clouds and precipitation both in the natural flow of the cloud processes and as the result of the influence on the cloud. A number of new factors that extend our idea about the cloud and precipitation formation were received. For example, it was established in the experiments that in winter the amount of artificial precipitation exceeds in several times the one-time supply of the liquid water in the frontal cloud layers that are seeding. Thus, during the time of their existence, frontal clouds are presented as "factories" in which the water falls many times as precipitation and is replaced by new portions of a water vapor. Within the Cumulonimbus clouds the forming of precipitation occurs in the zone of negative temperatures. The field studies that were begun at the Institute showed that the cloud "is fed" by a moisture mainly from the sub-cloud layer and it not all turns into the precipitation in a natural way but some reserve remains for increasing an artificial precipitation. The results of the experimental studies of the weather modification of the clouds of different forms are shown in the monographs "Clouds modification in the cold half of the year" (M.P. Leonov and G.I. Pereliot, Hydrometeoizdat, 1967), "Artificial precipitation from convective clouds" (G.F. Prykhotko, Hydrometeoizdat, 1968), "The impact to the air-mass stratiform clouds" (I.P. Polovyna, Hydrometeoizdat, 1971) and in the review "Artificial regulation of precipitation" (Ye.Ye. Kornienko and I.P. Polovyna, Obninsk, VNIIGMI-WDC, 1973) and in the chapter "Modification of clouds and precipitation" (in the collection "Results of science and technics", vol. 3, Moscow, VINITI, 1976, M.V. Buykov) which includes the brief results of the experimental and theoretical research. Along with the experimental works on a broad front there was a theoretical study of the cloud processes (M.V. Buykov). At the Institute a scientific direction was formed for clouds research linking dynamic and microphysical approaches to cloud processes with using methods of hydrodynamics and statistical physics. The numerous models of the frontal stratus and convective clouds were created. These models describe the processes of the precipitation formation on the basis of the phase transitions and transformations taking place in the cloud under influence by various reagents. The computer calculations were performed with one-dimensional and two-dimensional models of the frontal clouds of a mixed phase structure. The simulation of sowing with crystallizing reagents was carried out. The model of the formation of a fluid microstructure of cumulus clouds, linking formation of the precipitation of the particles with a cloud dynamics was designed. A one-dimensional non-stationary model of cumulus clouds was created. A one-dimensional non-stationary model of the formation of stratus clouds and fogs was developed (including interaction of dynamic, radiation and microphysical processes). A number of important results follow from the theory including a conclusion about the source of an additional precipitation during seeding winter frontal clouds that are available in the atmosphere as a reserve of a water vapor that capable for sublimation. A wide range of the laboratory research of the properties of ice forming reagents and surfactants that are used to influence on clouds and fogs was carried out. Based on these studies, in particular, a new way to generate ice crystals in the air flow passing through the porous layer of a solid carbon dioxide and create ice forming reagents by applying a thin layer of a silver iodide on the surface of fine powders of other substances was developed. The numerical modeling of the energy of an ice formation on the reagent that is crystallized was performed. At the Institute there was performed an extensive research of the physics of lightning phenomena. The ways of searching for the methods of influence on them were begun. The most complete results of these studies are described in the monograph "The Physics of Thunderstorms" (V.M. Muchnik, Hydrometeoizdat, 1975). In the 1980s the radar research methods of clouds and precipitation evolved. At the UHMI one of the most advanced samples of the radar equipment for that time (range 3 cm) which was named "Bolshoy ochag" (original in Russian) was created. After that for several years in the laboratory of the radar research the digital computing device "Meteorolog" and radar method for measuring the amount of the rain were developed and improved (together with the specialists of the V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine). By that time the level of accuracy of the radar measurements of the average by area layer of a liquid rain which exceeded the accuracy provided by the existing meteorological network was achieved. Later the radar-based methods for investigating clouds and precipitation and monitoring the effects of influences were improved. The method of the indication of strips of an enhanced precipitation in the frontal clouds seeding with a solid carbon dioxide was developed. The velocity of lowering of an artificial precipitation during the seeding of the stratus clouds was identified. The radar parameters of the Cumulonimbus clouds determining the amount of the precipitation that fell out from them were established. The methods of a radar measuring of the amount of precipitation for the purpose of a joint processing via computers and radar and recording rain gage measurements of the precipitation are improved. 
At the UHMI a number of instruments and systems for impact on clouds and fogs and the conducting of physical measurements in the atmosphere and clouds were created. Figure above displays: Left panel – radar equipment (A), aircrafts-laboratories IL-14 (Á) and YAK-40 (bottom left) in airport and on the research flight; Right panel – maps of monthly precipitation sums for Jan 1974 (1) and Jan 1975 (2), where solid circle is the target for artificial precipitations and dash line encounters the area of such precipitations occurrence because of the wind direction changes. The achievements of UHMI in the field of the atmospheric physics, in particular, the physics of clouds and the modification of hydrometeorological processes were widely known also outside the former Soviet Union. Especially their popularization took place after a visit of the Delegation of scientists from the United States to the Institute (within the framework of their official visit to the USSR) led by one of the most famous meteorologists at that time Lewis J. Butten.  The photo at entrance to the UHMI (Kyiv, 1976). A front row, left to right: M. Williams (USA), M. Buikov (UHMI), R. Lavoie (USA), F. Ostapov (UHMI) and L. Battan (USA). The second row: V. Filimonova (interperter), V. Myasnikov (the Institute of Experimental Meteorology, Russia), B. Leskov (UHMI), R. Bakhanova (UHMI), K. Logvinov (Director of the UHMI) and V. Synitsyn (interperter). The back row: E. Aleksandrov (the Institute of Experimental Meteorology, RF), N. La Seur (USA), Ye. Kornienko (UHMI) and L. Sakaly (UHMI). The first two decades of the independence of Ukraine (1991-2010).
The problem of the atmospheric processes’ modification is relatively new in the meteorological science and has an exploratory nature yet. However, during a short period of research the tangible results of a practical interest were achieved. In Ukraine until 1994 a production project was underway; it began in 1986 with the aim of increasing the amount of a winter precipitation on the area of 500 thousand hectares in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Later on, the analysis of the results showed that the relative increase in the precipitation on the target in comparison with the control environment was in better technologically provided seasons ranged from 8.0 to 21.0%. This result was obtained under conditions where the actual usage measure of suitable situations for the modification did not exceed 30 % (Leskov B.N.). At the moment there are reasons to believe that the results of the work on modification of clouds and fog in the coming years will be increasingly used in the economies of different countries of the world. The synoptic conditions formation for the dangerous heavy precipitation from frontal cloud systems in Ukraine were analyzed. The stationary and non-stationary numerical models of summer cloud formations on different scales in their relationship with the synoptic situations that lead to dangerous atmospheric phenomena, primarily, dangerously heavy precipitation in the summer period associated with the cyclones that move in Western Europe and Ukraine were built (Pirnach H.M., Zabolotska T.M.). The method of a heavy and catastrophic precipitation study in Ukraine with the help of numerical and synoptic models of the cloud formations on different scales was developed (Pirnach H.M.). The studies of the frontal clouds over Ukraine based on the satellite data (in the visible and infrared ranges of spectrum) were carried out. The spatial distribution of clouds and their repeatability on the atmospheric fronts of different types, the horizontal and vertical distribution of a water content in the clouds of various forms over the territory of Ukraine have been investigated (Zabolotska T.M.). The algorithm for the numerical simulation of the satellite radiometer signal (based on the microphysical model of stratiform clouds with a different phase composition and the ice crystals of various forms, the calculations of optical specifications of a light scattering by the cloud particles solving the equation of the radiation transfer in the cloud environment) was elaborated. The microstructure influence on the formation of the satellite signal was analyzed. The previous estimates of the cloud parameters on the data of satellite NOOA were carried out (Bakhanov V.P., Kryvobok O.A., Dorman B.A.). The field radar study of the convective cloud systems in the mountainous part of the Crimea (via radar systems AKZOPRI and ANTYHRAD) was conducted. Characteristics of the convective cloud rotation around the vertical axis and dynamics of a cloud volume change were studied. It was found that the evolution of convective clouds has an oscillatory character (there are periods of decline after the periods of an intense development) and new predictors of the hail threats were proposed. (Leskov B.N., Syrota M.V.). Using the radar data, the links between the characteristics of a mesoscale structure of the precipitation field from frontal clouds and atmospheric parameters were investigated, the new data on the mechanism of mesoscale zones of a heavy precipitation were obtained. The close connection of the radar reflectivity with a vertical wind shear and deflection of a vertical temperature gradient from the adiabatic was found (Sukhinskyy O.N., Akimov M.M., Osokina I.A.). The model of the convective jet distribution under the conditions of the arbitrary atmosphere stratification and wind field that is associated with a meso-meteorological model of the boundary layer of the atmosphere in a single calculated complex was created (Talerko M.M.). A comprehensive study (the numerical simulation and observational data analysis) was performed for the system evolution of stratiform and convective clouds and associated with them hazardous phenomena over the plain and mountainous territories of Ukraine which includes (Pirnach H.M., Krakovska S.V., Shpyg V.M., Leskov B.N.): the construction of diagnostic and forecasting models of systems of stratiform and cumulus clouds of the specified atmospheric fronts and associated with them atmospheric phenomena; radar studies of convective cloud systems parameters in the mountainous part of the Crimea. The complex research (on the basis of the radar data) of the physics of the mesozones of frontal clouds and development of a comprehensive method of a quantitative short-term forecast of the mesozones of the heavy precipitations for the steppe part of Ukraine was carried out. A three-dimensional numerical model of the convective boundary layer of the atmosphere was developed based on the explicit calculation of the turbulent vortices of a large scale (Skrynyk O.Ya.). The parameters of the subgrid-scale processes which were included in the national regional hydrodynamic model of the weather forecasting were developed (Prusov V.A.). The study based on the possible global climate change scenarios in the 21st century was conducted to assess the climate change in Ukraine. In particular, the possible changes in the basic climatic characteristics (a surface temperature and precipitation amount) of Ukraine in the 21st century were analyzed. They were obtained from the ensemble of the global climatic models based on three scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions: B1, A1B and A2 (Krakovska S.V.), Palamarchuk L.V.). The study of the cloud cover in the context of the climate change has begun. The frequencies of a clear and gloomy condition of the sky in general and in the lower cloudiness were estimated (Zabolotska T.M.). Since 2007 UHMI has created a group of scientists who have begun the work on the adaptation of the numerical mesoscale atmospheric model WRF (ARW / NMM) for the territory of Ukraine (Shpyg V.M. from the department of atmospheric physics joined it). Already in February 2008 the WRF ARW v. 2.2.1 model was put into operation and the site http://accuweather.org.ua/ was created. WRF ARW v. 2.2.1 proved to be a reliable source of the high-precision forecasting meteorological information and was used until August 2018. The specialists of the department acted as authors and co-authors of the well-known domestic monographs: The climate of Ukraine [edited by V.M. Lipinsky, cand. of phys.-math. V.A. Diachuk, cand. of geogr. sciences V.M. Babichenko] / The Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute, 2003. – p. 344. Silayev A.V., Bakhanov V.P., Bakhanova R.A. etc. The problem of the physics of clouds and weather modification of meteorological processes. – K .: Scientific Opinion, 2004. – p. 352. Prusov V.A., Doroshenko A.Yu. Physical and mathematical models, numerical methods of the analysis and forecast of natural and technogenic processes in the atmosphere. – The Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute. Institute of Software Systems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. – K .: Scientific Opinion, 2006. – p. 542. Natural meteorological phenomena on the territory of Ukraine during the last twenty years (1986-2005). Edited by V.M. Lipinskyi, V.I. Osadchyi, V.M. Babichenko – The Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute. State Hydrometeorological Service. – K .: Nika-Center, 2006. – p. 312. Pirnach H. M. Numerical modeling of clouds and precipitation in systems of atmospheric fronts. – The Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute. – Kyiv: Nika-Center, 2008, p. 295. Silayev A.V. Popular meteorology. – K: Nika-Center, 2010. – p. 304. The climate of Kyiv. Edited by V.I. Osadchyi, O.O. Kosovets, V.M. Babichenko – The Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute, Central Geophysical Observatory. – K: Nika-Center, 2010. – p. 320. The modern period (2011-2018).
Over the past few years the gradual transition from theoretical studies, conducting and analysis of laboratory and field experiments to modeling with scientific and applied orientation can be noted. WRF models became the basis for the creation of a number of software-modeling complexes (Budak I.V., Shpyg V.M.) of a short-term forecasting of the floods for the river basins (in particular, the Dnister River, the Western Bug River, the Pripyat River, the Tysa river, etc.) as well as the system of marine wind waves forecasting in the basins of the Azov and Black Seas. A national model (Prusov V.A.) was developed and the adaptation of two foreign models (WRF-CHEM – Budak I.V., Shpyg V.M., CALMET-CALPUFF – Skrynyk O.Ya.) was started; these models describe the transfer and transformation of pollutants in the atmosphere. The CALPUFF / CALMET diffusion model, a Gaussian puff model are admitted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) as one of the best and recommended by the agency as a modeling system for assessing the atmospheric transport and diffusion of impurities on the large spatial scales. In general the complex of these models can be used for the tasks related to the quality of an atmospheric air assessment on both small and considerable distances from the point source of pollution. On the basis of the physical-mathematical simulation the study of the peculiarity formation of a spot pollution of the area in the presence of a finite source of gas-aerosol impurities was carried out. The study of the influence of the emission time (an action time of the instantaneous source) on the formation of the local maxima of a total deposition of impurities was carried out. The formation criterion of the second local maximum (spot) of a total pollution of the underlying surface is established. The existence of a resonant regime of a spot formation under the condition of a periodic change of the power of a finite source was substantiated (Skrynyk O.Ya.). The relations with the usage of a non-localized parametrization of a turbulent diffusion for the estimation of the area pollution by atmospheric gas-aerosol admixtures (Voloshchuk V.M.) were proposed. The study of the clouds in the cold year period has been performed to calculate the possible amount of an additional precipitation at the weather modification in three regions of Ukraine (Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions). As a result of the performed calculations it was shown that under the modification conditions on all cloud systems suitable for sowing in these areas the additional precipitation from 38 to 73 mm (from 27 to 41% of the climate norm) can be additionally obtained (Leskov B.N., Nosar S.V.). The theoretical studies of the processes of a cloud and precipitation formation have made it possible to propose a quantitative transition criterion from the dominant condensation to the predominant coagulation growth of the cloud particles (Krakovska S.V., Khotyaintsev V.M., Bardakov R.V., Shpyg V.M.). The parametrization of a cloud and precipitation formation which allows to quantify the fluxes of the heat and moisture during the process of a cloud formation was proposed. (Prusov V.A.). The additive-averaging method (MAUM) for the case of multidimensional convective diffusion equations with variable coefficients which is intended for the numerical solution was modified. The modified additive-averaging method is implemented for the architecture of the video accelerator and the multiprocessor system with a shared memory by means of CUDA and OpenMP, respectively (Prusov V.A., Chernysh R.I., Katsalova L.M.). A new scheme of the interpolation (at the stage of the data preparation for further calculations according to the atmospheric model) from the nodes of a macroscale grid to the regional node with the prehistory in three nodes was proposed (Prusov V.A.). The kriging-interpolation method was proposed for the weather forecast postmodel data processing and the corresponding algorithm of the method was created. Its usage expediency for the solution of weather forecasting problems was substantiated (Shpyg V.M., Katsalova L.M.). The change projection analysis of the main climatic characteristics (the annual average seasonal and monthly surface air temperature, precipitation and relative humidity) was performed for the periods of 2011-2030, 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 years for each of the 25 administrative regions of Ukraine, 5 selected regions and the entire territory of Ukraine. These projections were obtained according to the ensembles of the regional climatic models which are optimal for Ukraine. The transition dates through the certain values (0, 5, 10 and 15 °Ñ) and duration of the periods with the average daily air temperature higher than these values were calculated for all the regional centers of Ukraine for three periods: the standard climatic (1961- 1990's), modern (1981-2010) and middle of the XXI century (2021-2050). Trends of the average minimum and average maximum seasonal air temperatures in Ukraine and also trends in the duration of warm, summer and growing periods for the frost and heat-loving crops were estimated (Krakovska S.V.). The combined algorithm for the reproduction of the precipitation intensity (Bakhanov V.P., Kryvobok O.A., Dorman B.A.) that is based on the data from the infrared radiometric satellites (MSG) as well as data from microwave sensors of the polar-orbiting satellites was developed (METOP). On the basis of the satellite information and ground observational data the study of water resources and frontal cloud systems’ precipitation generation capacity was carried out. For a heavy precipitation of the warm period the precipitation amount dependence on the simultaneous water content was detected. The pattern is revealed: more intensive rains are characterized by the higher values of the precipitation generation ability coefficient (Zabolotska T.M., Shpyg V.M.). The existence was shown and the study was initiated for the convective clouds which development has an explosive character (Leskov B.N.). The errors nature for the thunderstorm forecast created on the basis of the well-known and generally accepted in the meteorological community index of instability LI (Lifted Index) is shown. It is proved that the distributions of this index “with” and “without” a thunderstorm not much depends on the type and spatial resolution of the numerical model of the weather forecasting (Shpyg V.M., Budak I.V.). On the basis of these studies the significance of the indices of instability for the fact of the presence / absence of a thunderstorm was specified; the scheme of thunderstorms forecasting in points http://accuweather.org.ua/nwp/grfpage.php and the forecasting system for the thunderstorm probability on the territory of Ukraine http://accuweather.org.ua/nwp/tstorm/tstorm.html were developed. |
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