International Polar Year 2007-2008 DATABASE
CATALOGUE OF THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS RANGED BY THEIR PROBABILITY
(West Antarctic Sector)
(As First Results of IPY project # 1151 'Analysis of the transformation of large-scale
atmospheric circulation of the troposphere in the Southern hemisphere
in consequence of the climate warming impact for development of the physical-statistical methods
of weather at Antarctic Peninsula'), Supervisor Prof. V. Martazinova
CONTENTS
For both austral summer (DJF) and winter (JJA) figures are organized as follows:
- The most probable mean sea level pressure fields, decades 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2007.
- Monthly Fields, 1991-2000:
- Most Probable Fields (First probability class)
- Second probability class
- Raremost class
- Winter, Individual years’ Monthly Most Probable Fields
Method (References):
Tymofeyev V., 2009 On the role of tropospheric circulation in the recent climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula Region. Bulletin of Geography – Physical Geography Series (Poland), N 1, 2009, p. 63-75.
Martazinova V., Tymofeyev V., 2007: Interdecadal changes of tropospehric circulation in Southern extratropics during the recent warming in the Antarctic Peninsula (U.S. Geological Survey and The National Academies; USGS OF-2007-1047. Extended Abstract.067)
Martazinova V.F., 2005: The classification of synoptic Patterns by Method of Analogs, J. Environ. Sci. Eng., 7, 61-65.
Data: ERA-40, ECMWF (1971-2002), NCEP-NCAR (2003- currently)
AUSTRAL SUMMER (DJF)
1. The most probable mean sea level pressure fields (hPa), January, decades 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2007.
1971-1980
|
1981-1990
|
1991-2000
|
2001-2007
Note: Here 'H' means Low Center, and 'B' – High Center! – still not adopted to English. |
AUSTRAL SUMMER, MONTHLY FIELDS, 1991-2000
MOST PROBABLE FIELDS:
December
|
January
|
February
Skill probability: December 78%, January 88,7%, and February (93.6%). |
AUSTRAL SUMMER, MONTHLY FIELDS IN 1991-2000
SECOND PROBABILITY CLASS
December
|
January
|
February
Skill probability: December - 9.7%, January 7,4% February 6,4% |
AUSTRAL SUMMER, MONTHLY FIELDS IN 1991-2000
RAREMOST PROBABILITY CLASS
DECEMBER – 2 fields:
|
December, skill probability 7.9%, and 4,5%. |
JANUARY – 2 fields:
|
January, skill probability 2.9%, and 1%, 1991-2000 |
FEBRUARY:
No raremost MSLP fields are distinguished for February.
AUSTRAL WINTER (JJA)
INDIVIDUAL DECADES, MOST PROBABLE FIELDS
The most probable mean sea level pressure fields, July, decades 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000 гг. and 2001-2007.
1971-1980
|
1981-1990
|
1991-2000
|
2001-2007
Note: Here also ‘H’ means Low Center, and ‘B’ – High Center! – still not adopted to English. |
WINTER, MONTHLY MOST PROBABLE FIELDS
Decade 1991-2000
June
|
July
|
August
Skill probability: June 62% , July 67%, August 72%. |
WINTER MONTHS, Decade 1991-2000, SECOND PROBABILITY CLASS
June
|
July
|
August
Skill probability: June 31%, July 23%, August 19%. |
WINTER, Decade 1991-2000, RAREMOST PROBABILITY CLASS
JUNE (3 MSLP fields):
(English abbreviations for Low and High Centers are used)
JULY - raremost (2 MSLP fields):
July-1
|
July-2
|
AUGUST – raremost (3 MSLP fields):
August-1
|
August-2
|
August-3
|
WINTER, INDIVIDUAL YEARS’ MONTHLY MOST PROBABLE FIELDS
Most probable mslp, July 1987 (coldest in the modern climate epoch). |
LATEST DECADE 2001-2007:
JULY
July, 2006
|
July, 2005
|
July, 2004
|
July, 2003
|
July, 2002
|
July, 2001
|
AUGUST
August, 2006
|
August, 2005
|
August, 2004
|
August, 2003
|
July, 2002
|
JUNE
June, 2006
|
June, 2005
|
June, 2004
|
June, 2003
|
June, 2002
|
|
